成渝城市群城市韧性格局时空演变特征分析与影响因子探测
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重庆师范大学地理与旅游学院

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国家自然科学基金(41601149):基于高速公路大数据与多元关系网络的川渝城市群货流网络格局与机理研究,国家社会科学基金(19XGL027):县域尺度山地乡村人居环境发展区划与治理模式研究,重庆市自然科学基金(cstc2019jcyj-msxmX0290):基于微观视角的区城制造业地理焦由与分散:方法与实证


Analysis of Spatial-Temporal Evolution Characteristics and Exploration of Influencing Factors in the Urban Resilience Pattern of the Chengdu-Chongqing Urban Agglomeration
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School of Geography and Tourism,Chongqing Normal University

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    【目的】对成渝城市群城市韧性格局时空演变特征和影响因子与障碍因子进行探究。【方法】以成渝城市群各地级市为研究对象,选取2010年-2019年数据,基于适应性循环构建城市韧性综合评价体系并采用熵权-TOPSIS法进行测度,运用Arcgis、地理探测器模型和障碍度模型进行时空演变、影响因子和障碍因子分析。【结果】成渝城市群城市韧性时序演化特征在研究期内处于长期波动状态,双核心城市韧性变化具有同步性,次级城市长期处于低水平波动上升状态;城市韧性格局空间演化特征具有显著空间异质性并存在较弱空间关联性,“双核心”极化地位突出,中部与西南部地区凹陷,演化类型以上升型和稳定型为主;经济发展、社会保障、生态与资源、人口发展为成渝城市群城市韧性主导影响因子,资金投入、科技创新水平、劳动力条件、社会治理能力和信息传播能力为主导障碍因子。【结论】未来成渝城市群可从主导影响因子与障碍因子入手,着力提升城市综合韧性水平,以期实现安全与可持续发展。

    Abstract:

    [Purposes]This study aims to investigate the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of the urban resilience pattern and the influencing and hindering factors in the Chengdu-Chongqing Urban Agglomeration.[Methods]The study focuses on various prefecture-level cities within the Chengdu-Chongqing Urban Agglomeration and utilizes data from 2010 to 2019. An adaptive cycle is used to construct a comprehensive urban resilience assessment system, and the entropy weight-TOPSIS method is employed for measurement. Spatial-temporal evolution, influencing factors, and hindering factors are analyzed using ArcGIS, geographic detector models, and hindrance degree models.[Findings]The urban resilience of the Chengdu-Chongqing Urban Agglomeration exhibits long-term fluctuations during the study period, with synchronous changes in the dual-core cities and sustained low-level fluctuations with an upward trend in secondary cities. The spatial evolution of the urban resilience pattern exhibits significant spatial heterogeneity and weak spatial correlation. The "dual-core" polarization is prominent, while the central and southwestern regions are depressed. Evolutionary types are mainly characterized by an ascending and stable pattern. The dominant influencing factors for urban resilience in the Chengdu-Chongqing Urban Agglomeration are economic development, social security, ecology and resources, and population development. The main hindering factors include financial investment, technological innovation level, labor conditions, social governance capacity, and information dissemination capacity.[Conclusions]In the future, the Chengdu-Chongqing Urban Agglomeration can focus on dominant influencing and hindering factors to enhance overall urban resilience, with the aim of achieving safety and sustainable development.

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  • 收稿日期:2023-04-15
  • 最后修改日期:2023-09-13
  • 录用日期:2024-02-26
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