城口县降雨径流空间模拟研究
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1.重庆交通大学智慧城市学院;2.重庆交通大学建筑与规划学院;3.重庆市城口县气象局;4.重庆市云阳县气象局

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Spatial simulation study of rainfall runoff in Chengkou County
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1.School of Smart City,Chongqing Jiaotong University;2.School of Architecture and Planning,Chongqing Jiaotong University;3.Meteorological Bureau of Chengkou County;4.Meteorological Bureau of Yunyang County

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    摘要:

    【目的】探究重庆市城口县强降雨情景下径流空间分布,为地区防灾减灾提供参考。【方法】改进SCS模型,耦合土壤和土地利用数据,模拟计算24小时降雨量50~250mm6种情景下的径流量,分析2010和2020年土地利用变化下各乡镇径流分布,选取4场代表性强降雨进行径流量空间模拟。【结果】城口县径流总量与降雨量呈显著正相关,降雨量越大时,随径流曲线数增加,径流量增加越快,洪涝灾害风险增大明显;在相同降雨强度下,径流总量高等级区主要分布在研究区西南部乡镇;草地增加使模拟径流量等级下降,未利用地增加对径流等级影响不显著,降雨径流变化与土地利用变化密切相关;4场次实际降雨模拟结果表明研究区双河、周溪、明通、葛城、修齐、河鱼和东安等乡镇是暴雨洪灾重点防范区。【结论】研究成果可为城口县暴雨洪水灾害预报预警提供支撑。

    Abstract:

    [Purposes] To investigate the spatial distribution of runoff under heavy rainfall scenarios in Chengkou County, Chongqing Municipality, and to provide reference for regional disaster prevention and mitigation. [Methods] The SCS model was improved, coupled with soil and land use data, to simulate the runoff volume under six scenarios of 24-hour rainfall ranging from 50 to 250 mm, to analyze the distribution of runoff in townships under the land use changes in 2010 and 2020, and to select four representative heavy rainfall events for spatial simulation of runoff volume. [Findings]The total amount of runoff in Chengkou County is significantly positively correlated with rainfall, and the higher the rainfall, the faster the runoff increases with the increase in the number of runoff curves, and the increase in flood risk is obvious; under the same rainfall intensity, the high-grade area of the total amount of runoff is mainly distributed in the southwestern townships of the study area; the increase in the grassland makes the simulated runoff grades decrease, and the increase in the unutilized land does not have a significant impact on runoff grades, and the changes in rainfall runoff is closely related to the changes in land use; four representative heavy rainfalls were selected for the spatial simulations of runoff volume. Land use changes are closely related to rainfall runoff changes; the results of four actual rainfall simulations show that the townships of Shuanghe, Zhouxi, Mingtong, Gecheng, Xiuqi, Heyu and Dong"an in the study area are the key preventive areas for heavy rainfall and flooding. [Conclusions] The research results can provide support for heavy rainfall and flood disaster forecasting and early warning in Chengkou County.

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  • 收稿日期:2023-08-30
  • 最后修改日期:2024-02-15
  • 录用日期:2024-04-08
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