1961—2020年长江源区降水变化特征分析
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国家自然科学基金面上项目(No.31760147);青海省科学技术厅项目(No.2021-ZJ-926;No.2020-ZJ-763)


Analysis on the Characteristics of Precipitation Changes in the Source Region of the Yangtze River from 1961 to 2020
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    摘要:

    【目的】开展长江源区降水序列趋势及突变识别,为长江源区湿地生态保护、水资源开发利用等提供理论依据。【方法】以长江源区内具有代表性的8个气象站点即曲麻莱站、清水河站、玉树站、囊谦站、治多站、杂多站、沱沱河站和五道梁站为研究站点,基于1961—2020年有关气象资料,运用线性倾向估计、滑动平均、Mann-Kendall检验、滑动T检验等方法,识别与分析长江源区的降水序列变化特征。【结果】1) 1961—2020年,长江源区降水序列呈上升趋势,增加速率为0.809 mm·a-1。2) 长江源区春季和冬季降水量呈明显增加趋势,夏季和秋季降水量增加趋势不明显。3) 当子序列为5时,长江源区降水序列于1970年发生突变;当子序列为7时,于1997年和1998年降水量发生突变,由下降变为上升趋势。4) 当子序列为5时,长江源区8个研究气象站点降水序列在1961—2020年间均出现突变点;当子序列为7时,仅有曲麻莱站、清水河站、治多站、沱沱河站和五道梁站的降水序列在上述60年间出现突变点。【结论】1961—2020年长江源区降水总量增多,有关长江源区的气候变化防御工作亟需加强。

    Abstract:

    [Purposes] The trend and sudden change identification of precipitation series in the source region of the Yangtze River are carried out, which provides a theoretical basis for the ecological protection of wetlands and water resources development and utilization in the source region of the Yangtze River. [Methods] Taking 8 representative meteorological stations in the source region of the Yangtze River as the research object, namely Qumalai, Qingshuihe, Yushu, Nangqian, Zhiduo, Zaduo, Tuotuohe and Wudaoliang, based on the meteorological data from 1961 to 2020, using linear tendency estimation, sliding average, Mann-Kendall test, sliding T test and other methods to identify and analyze the change characteristics of precipitation series in the source region of the Yangtze River. [Findings] 1) From 1961 to 2020, the precipitation series in the source region of the Yangtze River shows an upward trend, with an increase rate of 0.809 mm·a -1. 2) The precipitation in spring and winter shows a significant increasing trend, while the increasing trend in summer and autumn is not obvious. 3) When the subsequence was 5, the precipitation sequence in the source region of the Yangtze River was abruptly changed in 1970. When the subsequence was 7, it abruptly mutated in 1997 and 1998, changing from a downward to an upward trend. 4) When the subsequence was 5, the precipitation sequences of the eight research meteorological stations in the source region of the Yangtze River all had mutation points from 1961 to 2020. When the subsequence was 7, only the precipitation sequences of Qumalai, Qingshuihe, Zhiduo, Tuotuohe and Wudaoliang have mutation points during the above 60 years. [Conclusions] From 1961 to 2020, the total amount of precipitation in the source region of the Yangtze River increased, and the climate change prevention work about the source region of the Yangtze River urgently needs to be strengthened.

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马莲,司剑华,杨颖,刘增辉,高云鹤,李梦媛,卢素锦,金诚,祁玥,陈雨薇,李紫涵.1961—2020年长江源区降水变化特征分析[J].重庆师范大学学报自然科学版,2023,(2):141-150

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  • 在线发布日期: 2023-05-22