成渝城市群城市韧性格局时空演变特征分析与影响因子探测
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国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(No.41601149);国家社会科学基金项目(No.19XGL027);重庆市自然科学基金项目(No.cstc2019jcyj-msxmX0290)


Analysis of Spatial-Temporal Evolution Characteristics and Exploration of Influencing Factors in the Urban Resilience Pattern of the Chengdu-Chongqing Urban Agglomeration
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    摘要:

    为探究成渝城市群城市韧性格局时空演变特征和探测有关影响因子,以该城市群内的重庆市及四川省15个地级市为研究对象,选取2010—2019年有关数据,基于适应性循环理论构建城市韧性评价指标体系并采用熵权-TOPSIS法、核密度估计法、空间自相关分析、地理探测器和障碍度模型进行了分析。结果显示:1) 在时序演化维度上成渝城市群城市综合韧性水平处于长期波动状态,“双核心”城市韧性变化具有同步性,次级城市长期处于低水平波动上升状态;2) 在空间演化维度上成渝城市群城市韧性具有明显空间异质性并存在较弱空间关联性,“双核心”突出、中部与西南部地区凹陷,城市韧性演化类型以上升型和稳定型为主;3) 经济发展因子、社会保障因子、生态与资源因子和人口发展因子为影响成渝城市群城市韧性的主要因子,资金投入、科技创新水平、劳动力条件、社会治理能力和信息传播能力为成渝城市群城市韧性提升的主要障碍因子。研究结果为成渝城市群城市安全与可持续发展提供了科学参考。

    Abstract:

    To investigate the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of the urban resilience pattern and the influencing and hindering factors in the Chengdu-Chongqing Urban Agglomeration (CCUA), Chongqing and 15 prefecture level cities in Sichuan Province within the urban agglomeration were taken as research objects and the utilizes data from 2010 to 2019 were selected. An adaptive cycle is used to construct a comprehensive urban resilience assessment system, and the entropy weight-TOPSIS method is employed for measurement. Spatial-temporal evolution, influencing factors, and hindering factors are analyzed using ArcGIS, geographic detector models, and hindrance degree models. The urban resilience of the CCUA exhibits long-term fluctuations during the study period, with synchronous changes in the dual-core cities and sustained low-level fluctuations with an upward trend in secondary cities. The spatial evolution of the urban resilience pattern exhibits significant spatial heterogeneity and weak spatial correlation. The “dual-core” polarization is prominent, while the central and southwestern regions are depressed. Evolutionary types are mainly characterized by an ascending and stable pattern. The dominant influencing factors for urban resilience in the CCUA are economic development, social security, ecology and resources, and population development. The main hindering factors include financial investment, technological innovation level, labor conditions, social governance capacity, and information dissemination capacity. In the future, the CCUA can focus on dominant influencing and hindering factors to enhance overall urban resilience, with the aim of achieving safety and sustainable development.

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丁晨浩,高鑫,侯鑫.成渝城市群城市韧性格局时空演变特征分析与影响因子探测[J].重庆师范大学学报自然科学版,2024,41(5):50-62

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  • 在线发布日期: 2024-12-01