基于增强式集成学习模型的铁矿石价格预测研究
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国家自然科学基金面上项目(No.71871064)


An Enhanced Ensemble Learning Model for Iron Ore Price Prediction
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    摘要:

    随着经济建设进程的加速以及基础建设对原材料需求的持续增长,原材料生产企业面临着日益严峻的挑战。为维持企业的稳定运营并提升竞争力,探寻一种有效的原材料商品价格预测方法成为企业的迫切需求。铁矿石作为基础建设的重要原材料之一,期货价格波动呈现出复杂多变的特性,这给价格预测工作带来了巨大挑战。尽管当前已存在多种预测方法,但预测精度和稳定性仍有待提高。因此,为探索一种更为准确且有效的铁矿石价格预测方法,基于多元时间序列的铁矿石价格序列,设计了一个由多头卷积堆叠长短期记忆编码器解码器网络和模态信号分解技术与注意力机制组合的增强式集成学习模型。该方法首先利用模态信号分解技术降低价格序列的波动性,然后通过多头卷积网络自动从多元序列数据中提取复杂空间特征,接着利用堆叠长短期记忆网络从历史序列中提取时间特征,最后通过注意力机制提取关键特征,并得出最终的预测结果。实验结果表明,提出的增强式集成模型在预测精度和稳定性方面均优于未考虑分解技术的其他模型。研究结果具有实际应用价值,可助力钢铁企业更为精准地预测铁矿石价格,进而维持高质量的发展与运营。

    Abstract:

    With the acceleration of economic construction and the sustained growth in demand for raw materials driven by infrastructure development, raw material production enterprises are facing increasingly severe challenges. To maintain stable operations and enhance competitiveness, there is an urgent need for these enterprises to explore effective methods for predicting commodity prices of raw materials. As one of the essential raw materials for infrastructure construction, iron ore exhibits complex and volatile characteristics in its futures price fluctuations, posing significant challenges to price forecasting. Although various prediction methods currently exist, their accuracy and stability still require improvement. Therefore, it aims to explore a more accurate and effective method for forecasting iron ore prices. It proposes an enhanced ensemble learning model that integrates a multi-head convolutional stacked long short-term memory (LSTM) encoder-decoder network with modal signal decomposition and attention mechanisms, based on multivariate time series of iron ore prices. The proposed method first employs modal signal decomposition to reduce the volatility of the price series. Subsequently, a multi-head convolutional network automatically extracts complex spatial features from the multivariate sequence data, while a stacked LSTM (SLSTM) network captures temporal dependencies from historical sequences. Finally, an attention mechanism is applied to identify key features and generate the final prediction results. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed enhanced ensemble model outperforms other benchmark models without decomposition techniques in terms of both prediction accuracy and stability. The findings possess significant practical implications, enabling mining enterprises to achieve more accurate iron ore price predictions, thereby facilitating sustained high-quality development and operational stability.

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刘仕强,潘威旭.基于增强式集成学习模型的铁矿石价格预测研究[J].重庆师范大学学报自然科学版,2025,42(3):1-16

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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-07-16