成渝地区农田生产力对骤旱敏感性分析
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国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(No.42201124);重庆市自然科学基金创新发展联合基金项目(No.CSTB2024NSCQ-LZX0064);中国博士后科学基金项目(No.2023M740433)


Sensitivity Analysis of Farmland Productivity to Flash Droughts in Chengdu-Chongqing Region
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    摘要:

    干旱是对农田生产力影响较大的气象灾害,且正在更多地以骤旱形式表现出来。利用2000—2020年的土壤湿度、总初级生产力和农作物类型数据,基于游程理论和植被敏感指数分析了旱情较为严重的2006和2010年成渝地区农田生产力对骤旱敏感性,并结合地理加权回归模型确定了对农田生产力影响最大的骤旱特征参数。研究结果显示:1) 2010年成渝地区骤旱持续时间和骤旱间隔时间总体较2006年时更长,骤旱烈度和骤旱严重度总体较2006年时更高,但骤旱次数与2006年时相比差异较小;2) 成渝地区农田生产力对骤旱敏感性在2006年总体上较为均一、空间差异性较小,在2010年则呈现出明显的“西高东低”空间分异格局;德阳市和绵阳市的农田生产力对骤旱敏感性高于该地区其他区域;3) 成渝地区水稻型和其他农作物型农田的生产力对骤旱敏感性相对较高;4) 骤旱持续时间与骤旱烈度为影响成渝地区农田生产力的主要因素;5) 三季稻农田的生产力对骤旱敏感性明显高于单、双季稻农田,灌溉农田的生产力对骤旱敏感性明显低于雨养农田。研究结果可为成渝地区的骤旱防治和农业结构调整工作提供科学依据。

    Abstract:

    Drought is a meteorological disaster that has a large impact on farmland productivity and is manifesting itself more in the form of flash droughts. Taking the Chengdu-Chongqing Region, the sensitivity of farmland productivity to flash droughts in the Chengdu-Chongqing Region is analyzed in 2006 and 2010, when drought was more severe, based on the travel theory and vegetation sensitivity index using soil moisture, total primary productivity and crop type data from 2000 to 2020, and determined the parameters of flash droughts characteristics that had the greatest impact on farmland productivity by combining with the geographically weighted regression model. The results showed that: 1) the duration and interval of flash droughts in Chengdu-Chongqing Region in 2010 were longer than that in 2006, and the intensity and severity of flash droughts were higher than that in 2006, but the difference in the number of flash droughts was small. 2) The sensitivity of farmland productivity to flash droughts in Chengdu-Chongqing Region in 2006 was generally more homogeneous, and the spatial variability was small; and in 2010, the productivity of the region showed a clear “uniform” pattern, with the same spatial variability as that in the same region. In 2010, the sensitivity of farmland productivity to flash droughts in the region showed a clear pattern of “high in the west and low in the east”; the productivity of farmland in Deyang City and Mianyang City was higher than that of other regions in the region. 3) The productivity of rice-type and other crop-type farmland in Chengdu-Chongqing region was relatively high in relation to the sensitivity to flash droughts. 4) The duration of flash droughts and the intensity of flash droughts were the main factors affecting farmland productivity in Chengdu-Chongqing Region. 5) the productivity of three-season rice was generally more uniform, with less spatial variability. 〖BP)〗5) Productivity sensitivity to flash droughts was significantly higher in three-season rice fields than in single- and two-season rice fields, and productivity sensitivity to flash droughts was significantly lower in irrigated fields than in rainfed fields. The results can provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of flash droughts in Chengdu-Chongqing Region and for the adjustment of agricultural structure.

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赵逸飞,姜亮亮,刘睿,李奇锦,唐思怡.成渝地区农田生产力对骤旱敏感性分析[J].重庆师范大学学报自然科学版,2025,42(3):77-89

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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-07-16