嘉陵江流域汛期不同等级降水量时空变化特征及贡献率分析
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国家自然科学基金地区科学基金项目(No.42067061);生态旅游湖南省重点实验室开放基金项目(No.STLY2203);气象灾害预测预警与应急管理研究中心项目(No.ZHYJ22-YB07);内江师范学院校级科研项目(No.2023YB05)


Analysis of Spatio-Temporal Variation and Contribution Rate of Different Grade of Precipitationin the Jialing River Basin During the Flood Season
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    摘要:

    为揭示嘉陵江流域汛期降水规律,基于该流域11个气象站1960—2020年逐日降水资料,采用线性倾向估计、Mann-Kendall非参数检验、滑动t检验、重标极差分析、贡献率分析等方法分析了流域汛期(5—9月)总降水量和不同等级降水量的时空演变规律,并量化降水日数和降水强度变化对降水量的贡献。结果表明:1) 流域汛期降水以中雨和小雨为主,总降水量及不同等级降水量均呈增长趋势,其中暴雨降水量增幅最大;2) 总降水量及中雨、大雨和暴雨降水量在空间上呈“东部和西南部多、北部少”的格局,总体上南北差异大于东西差异;3) 除总降水量在1985年发生突变外,不同等级降水量均没有突变发生;未来总降水量及中雨、暴雨降水量仍呈增加趋势,而小雨、大雨降水量呈减少趋势;4) 总降水增量与中雨、大雨和暴雨降水增量主要受降水日数变化影响,小雨降水增量则主要源于降水强度增加。研究结果为区域气候变化研究及水资源的利用和开发提供科学依据。

    Abstract:

    In order to reveal the law of precipitation during the flood season in the Jialingjiang River Basin, based on the daily precipitation data of 11 meteorological stations in the basin from 1960 to 2020, the temporal and spatial evolution laws of the total precipitation and precipitation of different grades in the flood season (May-September) were analyzed using methods such as linear tendency estimation, Mann-Kendall non-parametric test, sliding t-test, re-scaling analysis, and contribution rate analysis, and the contribution of the change of precipitation days and precipitation intensity to the precipitation was quantified. The results show that: 1) The precipitation of the basin during the flood season is mainly moderate rain and light rain, and the total precipitation and precipitation of different grades all show an increasing trend, among which the precipitation of torrential increases the most. 2) The total precipitation and the precipitation of moderate rain, heavy rain and torrential rain are more in the east and southwest and less in the north, the overall difference between the north and the south is greater than that between the east and the west. 3) Except for the total precipitation in 1985, there no sudden change in the precipitation of different grades; the total precipitation, moderate rain and torrential rain in the future still show an increasing trend, while the light rain and heavy rain a decreasing trend. 4) The increment of total precipitation and the increment of moderate rain, heavy rain and torrential rain are mainly affected by the change of precipitation days, while increment of light rain precipitation mainly comes from the increase of precipitation intensity. The research results provide a scientific basis for the study of regional climate change and the utilization and development of water.

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甄英,李永飞,刘鸿文,刘紫莹,林鑫.嘉陵江流域汛期不同等级降水量时空变化特征及贡献率分析[J].重庆师范大学学报自然科学版,2025,42(5):84-95

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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-12-16