考虑趋同效应的鲁棒稀疏指数跟踪研究
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O212;F832.51

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重庆市教育委员会科学技术研究计划青年项目(No.KJQN202400514)


Research on Robust Sparse Index Tracking Considering Convergence Effects
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    摘要:

    针对金融市场的指数跟踪问题,提出了一种结合新型非凸鲁棒有界光滑(robust,bounded and smooth,RBS)损失以及组最小绝对收缩和选择算子(least absolute shrinkage and selection operator,LASSO)罚项的跟踪模型,可以根据股票波动趋势的趋同效应成组选择出重要的成分股,构建目标指数的跟踪模型,在含有异常数据的情况下仍能够获得较低的跟踪误差。首先,为消除异常点的影响,提出一种新型的非凸RBS损失函数;其次,引入组LASSO罚项,对具有波动趋势及趋同效应的股票进行分组惩罚,从而根据趋同效应成组选择重要的成分股;最后,在跟踪误差最小的目标下建立正则化模型,运用近邻梯度下降算法对模型进行优化求解,得到重要的股票以及相应的跟踪模型。通过大量的数值实验,证明了新方法对抗异常点的鲁棒性和成组选择变量的能力。在上证50指数跟踪的实证分析中,当挑选相同数量的重要成分股票时,新模型较已有很多著名的稀疏投资组合方法能够获得更低的跟踪误差,这表明了该模型优越的跟踪能力和良好的预测表现。

    Abstract:

    Aiming at the index tracking problem in financial markets, a tracking model combining a novel non-convex RBS (robust, bounded and smooth) loss and group LASSO (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) penalty is proposed. This model can select important constituent stocks in groups based on the convergence effect of stock volatility trends and construct a tracking model for the target index. It can achieve a lower tracking error even in the presence of abnormal data. Firstly, a novel non-convex RBS loss function is proposed to eliminate the influence of outliers. Secondly, the group LASSO penalty is introduced to group-penalize stocks with exhibiting volatile trends and convergence effects, thereby selecting important constituent stocks in groups based on the convergence effect. Finally, a regularization model is established with the objective of minimizing the tracking error, and the model is optimized and solved using the proximal gradient descent algorithm to obtain the important stocks and the corresponding tracking models. Through extensive numerical experiments, the robustness of the new method against outliers and its ability to select variables in groups are demonstrated. In the empirical analysis of tracking the SSE 50 Index, when the same number of important constituent stocks are selected, the new model achieves a lower tracking error compared to many well-known sparse portfolio methods, indicating its superior tracking ability and predictive performance.

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齐凯.考虑趋同效应的鲁棒稀疏指数跟踪研究[J].重庆师范大学学报自然科学版,2026,43(3):1-11

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-07-14
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