人类活动对松材线虫病传播动力学的影响研究
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O175.1

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重庆市教育委员会科学技术研究计划——重点项目(No.KJZD-K202401404),青年项目(No.KJQN202201419)


Research on the Impact of Human Activities on the Transmission Dynamics of Pine Wilt Disease
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    摘要:

    松材线虫病被称为“松树癌症”,能快速导致松树枯死,对经济发展和森林生态造成毁灭性危害。 感染媒介天牛的迁移,是导致松材线虫病在全球扩散和暴发的关键因素。 本研究基于媒介昆虫的自然传播和依赖人类活动的长距离传播,构建了一个松材线虫病的双斑块宿主-媒介耦合模型。 通过下一代矩阵推导了基本再生数R0,并证明当R0<1时,无病平衡点是全局渐近稳定的,疾病最终灭绝;当R0>1时,系统是一致持续的,疾病流行。 研究结果表明人类活动导致的长距离传播能够使本应无病的区域被入侵,将感染从高流行区域扩散到低流行区域。 研究结果为空间协调的干预措施提供了理论依据,这些措施包括沿木材运输路线实施检疫和缓冲区管理。

    Abstract:

    Pine wilt disease, known as the “cancer of pine trees” can rapidly cause pine mortality and poses devastating damage to economic development and forest ecosystems. The migration of vector beetles, which mediate infection, is a key factor driving the global spread and outbreak of pine wilt disease. In this study, we developed a two-patch host-vector coupled model for pine wilt disease, incorporating both natural dispersal of vector insects and human-mediated long-distance transmission. The basic reproduction number R0 was derived using the next-generation matrix. We proved that when R0 <1, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable and the disease eventually dies out; when R0 > 1, the system is uniformly persistent and the disease becomes endemic. Our findings indicate that human-mediated long-distance transmission can invade previously disease-free areas and spread infection from high-prevalence regions to low-prevalence regions.These results provide a theoretical basis for spatially coordinated intervention measures, including quarantine along timber transport routes and buffer zone management.

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吴尚林,杨江涛.人类活动对松材线虫病传播动力学的影响研究[J].重庆师范大学学报自然科学版,2026,43(4):94-104

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-09-07
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